The British government has triggered the two year process by which Britain must leave the EU at the end of March 2019. The Tory government and party remain deeply divided on the terms of departure from the EU. The government’s negotiating position on these terms neither satisfies those who wish to remain in the EU  nor those who voted to leave  (Brexiteers).  The terms of the deal or whether there is no deal at all, has huge implications for Britain’s politics and economy. While the EU will be affected by British withdrawal from the union, the 27 nations can better withstand any deleterious consequences of  Britain’s departure. The British working class, in deciding on Brexit, whether to support  the Tory Party or Labour Party(LP) led by Jeremy Corbyn, face a real choice affecting their lives.

The negotiating position of the Tory government on Brexit is known as the Chequers proposal. For the Remainers, because this proposal  provides for a market in goods only with the EU, it does not go far enough. The Brexiteers reject it  because  of the market ties Britain retains with the EU. Two  Brexiteer cabinet ministers, David Davis and  Boris Johnson, have resigned from the Cabinet. One of the other Brexiteer cabinet ministers , Liam Fox is of the opinion that  Chequers will not be ratified; that no deal  is more likely, with Britain having to accept WTO tariffs. This is a position he favours. The chief EU negotiator, Michel Barnier rejects Chequers as cherry picking by choosing to trade in  goods and not services, as well as the ending of free movement of people. There is also the question of the soft border (no customs barrier) between Ireland and Northern Ireland, which will become a hard border  when Britain leaves the EU. None of the parties involved in the negotiations are in favour of  customs barriers having to be put in place when Britain leaves the EU. There is a great deal of loose talk among the British negotiating team about a technical solution to the border problem, without customs barriers but the EU negotiators reject this ‘solution’ outright.

 In discussion on Brexit, what we must not lose sight of is the  racist, xenophobic and anti-immigrant referendum campaign  conducted by the Brexiteers . They are working towards Britain as ‘a race to the bottom’ low wage economy falling under WTO tariffs and negotiations. The counterpart to Brexit lies in the US is Trump’s presidential campaign. His accession to power, Brexit and the rise of right wing governments and near fascist parties in Europe, represent a sharp turn to the right in world politics.

While the agenda of the Brexiteers is being propelled forward, those opposing it are focusing their attention on the approach of the main opposition party, the Labour Party, to the Brexit negotiations. The majority of LP supporters (65%) voted to remain in the EU in the referendum. Many LP supporters to the north in Britain, where there has been large scale deindustrialisation felt abandoned by the LP and voted to leave the EU. The LP, led by Jeremy Corbyn has to win back their support and try and unite the party. As part of this process, it is important for him to retain the support of the many  trade union members of the LP and extend the influence of the  party  to trade unionists  outside the LP. The LP has accepted the verdict of the British people in the referendum. It aims to ensure that the post-Brexit settlement preserves the benefits Britain obtains from collaboration with the EU. Its policy on Brexit is a new customs union with the EU with easy but not open access to Britain for migrants. The right-wing of the LP, and this includes many LP MPs, fear a radical program for the future of the country promised by the Corbyn leadership, supported by large numbers of young recruits to the LP.  This program is opposed to neo-liberal policies and tackles the social problems that caused the Brexit vote.  The Corbyn leadership has discussed  bringing back under public ownership, privatised public services such as transport, undertaking  a massive social housing program and abolishing trade union laws that interfere with  workers rights to strike. Some Tory MP rebels, who voted against the government on the terms of withdrawal from the EU,  have been in discussion with right wing LP MPs and there is even talk of a “new political party”.

If the Chequers proposal for Britain leaving the EU is rejected by the EU and there is a no deal, the spotlight will then turn to the British parliament. The coalition of the minority Tory government, supported in key votes by the Democratic Unionist Party of Northern Ireland , is unlikely to survive the combined opposition to a no deal of the LP, Liberals, Scottish Nationalists (SNP), Welsh nationalists and rebel Tory MPs. Whether the impasse produced will lead to a call for a general election or a second referendum on membership of the EU, is hard to predict. There is a growing demand in the ranks of the LP for a second referendum on the EU. There are powerful forces at work opposed to a Corbyn led LP winning political power. Turbulent times in Britain lie ahead.